Although higher density residential projects may seem like a cost-effective way for Dublin to become an Entitlement Community at first, the accounting method used to justify this growth strategy often overlooks the impact higher density housing has on surrounding neighborhoods and underestimates the true cost of higher density to current residents. The increase in revenue generated by the initial burst of one-time impact fees from more units sold may be offset over time by the depreciation in property values from nearby homes and the slower appreciation rate of the high-density products themselves. The cost to provide the same level of service to a greater number of residents brought in by the higher density will continue to rise at a rate consistent with inflation, yet the City will have to contend with meeting the higher demand on a lower overall property tax base.
Dublin has done an outstanding job of bringing in first-time home buyers from all walks of life as it started to implement the Eastern Dublin Specific Plan. Many of these first-time home owners have outgrown their higher density units and are looking for opportunities to move into traditional single-family residences near their current neighborhoods. If we do not build homes of lower density to meet market demands, we will be forfeiting the greater sales and property tax base associated with the home owners Dublin had worked so hard to cultivate since the beginning of this decade to neighboring cities that do provide the housing types they desire.
Dublin can reach the population size required to qualify for the Federal Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) program in a way that respects longtime residents and fortifies our projected property tax revenue stream. By following the tried-and true development pattern of balancing the lower density housing in areas away from major transit centers with higher density housing near the major transit centers, we will have a city we can all be proud of at build-out.
